The midway point of the La Liga season in Spain has come to an end, and it has been an exhilarating and captivating first half with a standout performance by Jude Bellingham at the Bernabeu. Bellingham, the England international, has scored an impressive 13 goals in La Liga, along with four strikes in the Champions League, dominating headlines across Europe. Meanwhile, Barcelona’s season has been less consistent, struggling to live up to fans’ expectations, and facing a significant challenge in trying to retain their championship in 2024, as they trail Girona heading into the winter break.
As teams take a break to regroup and strategize for the remainder of the season, predictions by Opta’s season simulation tool suggest that Real Madrid has a greater than nine out of ten chance of winning the La Liga title for the 2023/24 season, with a 91.8% probability of finishing first. This comes despite former talismanic forward Karim Benzema’s departure and several key players such as Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao, Vinicius, Eduardo Camavinga, and David Alaba sidelined with injuries. Nevertheless, Bellingham’s exceptional form in front of goal, along with contributions from Rodrygo, Joselu, and Vinicius Junior, provide a source of optimism for Los Blancos.
Surprisingly, Barcelona is not predicted to come second in the standings. Girona, part of the City Football Group, which includes Manchester City and other clubs, has a 40.7% probability of finishing second. Led by Ukrainian forward Artem Dovbyk, Girona has seen a significant improvement in their performance this season, and they are ahead of Barcelona in the standings. This has resulted in a mounting pressure on Barcelona’s head coach Xavi, with fans expressing their dissatisfaction with the team’s current position in the league.
Atletico Madrid is another team to watch in the second half of the season, as they currently trail Barcelona by only three points. A successful run of form could see the Rojiblancos surpass Barcelona. Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table, Almeria and Granada are likely to face relegation, with Almeria having a 67.7% probability of finishing last and Granada following closely behind at 50.2%. Celta Vigo is also at risk of relegation and is expected to join Almeria and Granada in the bottom three.
As La Liga pauses for the winter break, it is clear that the remainder of the season promises to be as thrilling and competitive as the first half, with many storylines to follow, including the fight for the title, the battle for a top-four finish, and the struggle to avoid relegation. The stage is set for an exciting second half of the season in Spain’s top flight.
