A recent poll released Friday by Morning Consult reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment, particularly among Black voters, as President Trump gains support at the expense of Joe Biden. According to the poll, Biden’s support among Black voters has dropped by nine points over the past year, from 70 percent to 61 percent, while Trump’s has increased by seven points, from 15 percent to 22 percent.
The Morning Consult report states that Trump’s lead over Biden is driven by gains among key voter segments, including Black, Hispanic, and young Americans. The former president has taken his first monthly lead of the 2024 election cycle over President Joe Biden in November. Additionally, Trump now leads Biden among 18- to 34-year-olds, and Biden continues to lose support among Black and Hispanic voters. Trump also maintains a narrow edge among independents.
Moreover, Morning Consult’s poll shows Trump leading Biden in seven key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These findings are consistent with recent polls that have shown Trump leading in swing states and making significant inroads among Black voters.
In another statistic, Trump’s monthly share of support among potential GOP primary voters nationwide is at 65%, a tracking high. He also has large leads in most early and Super Tuesday nominating states.
A GenForward survey reported by Politico earlier this month reaffirms the shift in Black voter sentiment, with Biden seeing a decline in support. According to the survey, nearly 1 in 5 Black Americans said they would vote for former President Donald Trump, and 20 percent of Black respondents indicated they would vote for “someone else” other than Biden or Trump. This represents a significant jump for Trump among Black voters overall.
An October New York Times/Siena College poll also reflects the shifting sentiment among Black voters, with Biden’s support among swing state Black voters at 71 percent and Trump’s at 22 percent.
These findings are significant as they indicate a notable shift in voter sentiment among Black voters, a key demographic in U.S. elections. The shift in sentiment towards Trump represents a potential challenge for Democrats ahead of the 2024 presidential election. As the dynamics of the race continue to evolve, these polls offer an important insight into the evolving landscape of American politics.
